Uplift models play a critical role in modern marketing applications to help understand the incremental benefits of interventions and identify optimal targeting strategies. A variety of techniques exist for building uplift models, and it is essential to understand the model differences in the context of intended applications. The uplift curve is a widely adopted tool for assessing uplift model performance on the selection universe when observations are available for the entire population. However, when it is uneconomical or infeasible to select the entire population, it becomes difficult or even impossible to estimate the uplift curve without appropriate sampling design. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has addressed uncertainty quantification of uplift curve estimates, which is essential for model comparisons. We propose a two-step sampling procedure and a resampling-based approach to compare uplift models with uncertainty quantification, examine the proposed method via simulations and real data applications, and conclude with a discussion.

Determining whether deep neural network (DNN) models can reliably recover target functions at overparameterization is a critical yet complex issue in the theory of deep learning. To advance understanding in this area, we introduce a concept we term "local linear recovery" (LLR), a weaker form of target function recovery that renders the problem more amenable to theoretical analysis. In the sense of LLR, we prove that functions expressible by narrower DNNs are guaranteed to be recoverable from fewer samples than model parameters. Specifically, we establish upper limits on the optimistic sample sizes, defined as the smallest sample size necessary to guarantee LLR, for functions in the space of a given DNN. Furthermore, we prove that these upper bounds are achieved in the case of two-layer tanh neural networks. Our research lays a solid groundwork for future investigations into the recovery capabilities of DNNs in overparameterized scenarios.

Evaluation of multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs) is challenging due to a variety of factors -- the lack of benchmarks with sufficient linguistic diversity, contamination of popular benchmarks into LLM pre-training data and the lack of local, cultural nuances in translated benchmarks. In this work, we study human and LLM-based evaluation in a multilingual, multi-cultural setting. We evaluate 30 models across 10 Indic languages by conducting 90K human evaluations and 30K LLM-based evaluations and find that models such as GPT-4o and Llama-3 70B consistently perform best for most Indic languages. We build leaderboards for two evaluation settings - pairwise comparison and direct assessment and analyse the agreement between humans and LLMs. We find that humans and LLMs agree fairly well in the pairwise setting but the agreement drops for direct assessment evaluation especially for languages such as Bengali and Odia. We also check for various biases in human and LLM-based evaluation and find evidence of self-bias in the GPT-based evaluator. Our work presents a significant step towards scaling up multilingual evaluation of LLMs.

Models with nonlinear architectures/parameterizations such as deep neural networks (DNNs) are well known for their mysteriously good generalization performance at overparameterization. In this work, we tackle this mystery from a novel perspective focusing on the transition of the target recovery/fitting accuracy as a function of the training data size. We propose a rank stratification for general nonlinear models to uncover a model rank as an "effective size of parameters" for each function in the function space of the corresponding model. Moreover, we establish a linear stability theory proving that a target function almost surely becomes linearly stable when the training data size equals its model rank. Supported by our experiments, we propose a linear stability hypothesis that linearly stable functions are preferred by nonlinear training. By these results, model rank of a target function predicts a minimal training data size for its successful recovery. Specifically for the matrix factorization model and DNNs of fully-connected or convolutional architectures, our rank stratification shows that the model rank for specific target functions can be much lower than the size of model parameters. This result predicts the target recovery capability even at heavy overparameterization for these nonlinear models as demonstrated quantitatively by our experiments. Overall, our work provides a unified framework with quantitative prediction power to understand the mysterious target recovery behavior at overparameterization for general nonlinear models.